Top-performing whale wallets ranked by our 6-factor AI scoring model. Every expert is evaluated on Brier score, win rate, price alpha, difficulty-adjusted edge, conviction sizing, and consistency.
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Our 6-factor AI model evaluates every wallet on Polymarket using walk-forward validation with out-of-sample folds. Not cherry-picked backtests -- verifiable, transparent scoring.
Measures calibration accuracy. A score of 0 is perfect prediction; lower is better. We weight this heavily because calibrated traders make better signals.
Percentage of trades that resolved profitably. High win rate combined with high trade count indicates consistent performance, not luck.
How early a trader enters positions relative to final market resolution. Early movers who are right get higher alpha scores.
Adjusted for market difficulty. Winning on a 50/50 market is harder than on a 90/10 market. We reward traders who win on harder-to-predict outcomes.
Do they put meaningful capital behind their predictions? Traders who size up on their best ideas and are right score higher.
Measures performance stability over time. A steady 75% win rate across 500 trades beats a volatile 85% across 20 trades.